The dictator Vladimir Putin has already achieved his goal. His dream of regaining Soviet domination over the rest of Europe is becoming more and more real. The war that the Russian totalitarian regime started against Ukraine last February 29 is more a new cold war for control over Europe than a conventional war, with armed soldiers and tanks.
For many years, Putin has subsidized thousands of environmental organizations across the continent with the aim of promoting a transition to renewable energy. These policies have ended the energy sovereignty of countries such as France, Germany and Spain, which now, after closing nuclear power plants, are dependent on Russian energy.
This was not always the case – in the early 1990s, Europe produced 200 bcm (billion cubic meters) of gas per year, while they currently produce less than 75 bcm due to restrictions that prevent fracking. All these measures would make sense if we did not then buy that same polluting energy from Russia for three times the price. In the last two decades, Europe has progressively increased its dependence on foreign gas, especially Russian gas. The EU bought 155 bcm last year from Russia, 45% of its gas imports and about 40% of its total consumption, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). About half of the households of the EU’s 448 million people use gas heating.
That is why, if Putin turns off the tap, the coming winter could be unusually harsh in the cold northern and eastern European states, part of which is highly dependent on Russian gas. The only European country not dependent on Russia is Spain, whose energy comes directly from Africa. However, Germany has completely surrendered to the radical Putin.
The political elite in Brussels are guilty of creating laws that prohibit exploiting our natural resources. Countries like Spain have the solution in their own territory; however, today it is illegal, and that makes them dependent on foreign countries that sell that same energy for much more money. That is the real war that Putin has started, and that is the war he will win if Europe does not seek a solution that combines renewable energies with the exploitation of their own resources. This is the only way for these countries to recover energy sovereignty.
The other front of the war is what is happening in Ukraine. For the time being, Ukraine is recovering territories thanks to international aid. However, winter is coming, and Russia has always won wars thanks to the cold.
Cold winters helped Moscow defeat Napoleon and Hitler, and now President Vladimir Putin is betting that sky-high energy prices and possible gas shortages this winter will persuade Europe that Ukraine should be forced into a truce…on Russia’s terms.
According to two Russian sources familiar with the Kremlin’s strategy, that is the only path to peace Moscow sees, since Kiev says it will not negotiate until Russia gives up all of Ukraine.
“We have time and we can wait,” said a source close to the Russian authorities, who did not want to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the media.
“It’s going to be a difficult winter for Europeans. We could see protests and riots. Some European leaders might think twice about continuing to support Ukraine and that it’s time to come to an agreement.”
Andrey Kortunov, director of RIAC, a foreign policy think tank close to the Russian Foreign Ministry, said neither side intended to surrender first.
“Realistically, it is very difficult to imagine that a political settlement can be reached anytime soon.”
The two Armies have long been engaged in a war of attrition, neither of them having so far been able to achieve a decisive breakthrough. What we do know is that winter is coming, and for the moment, Putin is winning the game. Unfortunately, Europeans will lose every time they pay the electricity bill.
